Track record · closed signal

Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) — closed signal from December 9, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 9, 2026 — -12.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

EFC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$12.76 – $13.54Entry zone — fair-value band

$13.54Published — price the day we called it

$16.10Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$14.12Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$11.81Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 22% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-12.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+4.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-0.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$11.81

last close inside the window, ended March 9, 2026

Peak price

$14.12

peak on January 22, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published December 9, 2025

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$16.10

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$12.76 – $13.54

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$13.54

published December 9, 2025

Confidence

90%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Ellington Financial pays a steady monthly dividend and looks positioned to recover if interest rates calm. Recent market data show signs of a short-term price bottom and more buying interest than before. A Dec 4 note estimates up to 19 percent upside and confirms the $0.13 monthly payout, so collectors of income could see steady returns plus modest price gains over the next quarter.

Primary drivers

Good balance of price signals, investor mood, and company fundamentals.
Price action looks like a short-term bottom forming after recent weakness.
Street commentary shows 8-19% upside and confirms the $0.13 monthly dividend.
Mix of mortgage loans and securities provides income and recovery potential.

How it played out

EFC: target was not reached

Lyra published EFC at $13.54 on 2025-12-09 with a short-term thesis for 20% growth. The thesis pointed to a steady monthly dividend, a possible recovery if interest rates calmed, signs of a short-term price bottom, more buying interest, Street commentary showing 8-19% upside, and the $0.13 monthly payout.

Inside the window, EFC rose to a peak of $14.12 on 2026-01-22, a 4.3% gain. That stayed below the $16.10 target. The target was never reached. By 2026-03-09, the stock ended at $11.81. The thesis only partially played out: there was an early rise, but it faded and missed the target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All EFC signals