Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) — closed signal from July 16, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 14, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 62% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 16, 2025
Qualcomm’s share price has fallen 18% since May, a drop that often comes right before a bounce when optimism is still strong. Its long court fight with Apple is finally over, removing a big worry. New Snapdragon X Elite laptops launch later this year, opening fresh PC revenue. Shares cost only 13 times next year’s profits, near decade lows, and option traders now lean bullish. A move back to $185 within three months looks realistic.
Primary drivers
- Sharp slide plus rising buy volume suggest the worst selling is done.
- New PC chips and $30B in auto orders broaden Qualcomm’s customer reach.
- Stock at 13× earnings and 2.4% yield offers low price and small income boost.
- Positive tech mood and option bets point upward, adding fuel for a rebound.
How it played out
QCOM: target was not reached
Lyra published QCOM on July 16, 2025 at $152.65. The thesis expected 22% growth within three months, with a move back to $185 described as realistic. It pointed to the earlier 18% slide, rising buy volume, the end of the Apple court fight, Snapdragon X Elite laptops, $30B in auto orders, a 13 times earnings valuation, a 2.4% yield, and bullish option positioning.
Inside the window, QCOM rose, but it did not reach the target. The peak was $173.55 on September 24, a 13.7% gain. It never got there. By October 14, the stock ended at $160.92. The thesis partially played out.
What happened during the window
On July 30, 2025, Qualcomm reported fiscal third-quarter revenue of $10.4B. On September 24, 2025, Qualcomm announced the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 for flagship Android devices.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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