Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from December 8, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 8, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$184.52 Published $225.11 Target $177.82 Window close $197.63 Peak
$180.00 – $183.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$184.52Published — price the day we called it
$225.11Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$197.63Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$177.82Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 32% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$197.63
peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+7.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$177.82
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
December 8, 2025 – March 8, 2026

The thesis — published December 8, 2025

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$225.11
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$180.00 – $183.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$184.52
published December 8, 2025
Confidence
83%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Nvidia is at the center of spending on AI servers and robots. Analysts expect about 48 percent sales growth by fiscal 2027, and the stock trades at roughly 24 times expected profits. News points to rising demand for humanoid robots that use Nvidia GPUs. Strong orders and limited supply support profits, and buying small drops could capture more AI-driven gains.

Primary drivers

  • Largest provider of GPUs for AI data centers and robots
  • Analysts expect about 48% sales growth by fiscal 2027
  • Recent coverage shows steady, growing demand for AI hardware
  • Limited supply and high margins help near-term profits

How it played out

NVDA: target stayed out of reach

Lyra published NVDA on 2025-12-08 at 184.52. The thesis expected 22% growth and pointed to demand for artificial intelligence servers, robots, GPUs, about 48% sales growth by fiscal 2027, limited supply, and high margins. The target was 225.11.

Inside the window, NVDA rose to 197.63 on 2026-02-25, a 7.1% peak gain. It never reached 225.11. By 2026-03-08, it ended at 177.82. The thesis partially played out on direction at the peak, but it missed the target and finished below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-05, Nvidia launched the Vera Rubin computing platform at CES 2026, with partner availability expected in the second half of 2026. On 2026-02-26, Tom's Hardware reported Nvidia's fiscal 2026 results, including annual revenue of $215.938 billion and fourth-quarter revenue of $68.127 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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