Micron Technology Inc. (MU) — closed signal from July 16, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 14, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 57 days.
The thesis — published July 16, 2025
Micron’s share price sits about 11 percent below its peak even though the company’s memory-chip prices are climbing fast, and its newest high-speed product is already sold out until mid-2026. Options traders are betting on a move to 130-140 dollars. Industry experts expect another 13-18 percent chip-price rise for July-September. The stock is still cheap compared with earnings, and U.S./Japan factories limit trade-war risk, so a rise toward 140 dollars within three months looks realistic.
Primary drivers
- Oversold reading and better trend echo March setup that led to a 22% rally.
- 13-18% memory price rise expected, likely to lift profit margins in fiscal 2025.
- High-speed HBM3e chips booked solid to mid-2026, scarce supply supports strong prices.
- Idaho and Japan plants dodge tariffs, while share trades cheaply at just 4.4x EBITDA.
How it played out
MU: target reached in 57 days
Lyra published MU at 119.99 on 2025-07-16 with expected growth of 25%. The thesis pointed to an oversold reading, a better trend, a 13-18% expected memory price rise for July-September, HBM3e chips booked solid to mid-2026, U.S. and Japan plants, and a cheap 4.4x EBITDA valuation.
Inside the window, MU reached the 149.83 target in 57 days. The stock later peaked at 200.92 on 2025-10-06, with a 67.5% peak gain. It ended the window at 186.98. The thesis played out and went well past the target.
What happened during the window
On 2025-09-23, Micron reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of 11.32 billion and adjusted earnings per share of 3.03. On 2025-10-02, TechRadar reported that Micron had begun shipping samples of HBM4 memory with more than 2.8TB/s of bandwidth and pin speeds above 11Gbps.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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