Micron Technology Inc. (MU) — closed signal from July 16, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 14, 2025 — +55.8% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 57 days.
The thesis — published July 16, 2025
Micron’s share price sits about 11 percent below its peak even though the company’s memory-chip prices are climbing fast, and its newest high-speed product is already sold out until mid-2026. Options traders are betting on a move to 130-140 dollars. Industry experts expect another 13-18 percent chip-price rise for July-September. The stock is still cheap compared with earnings, and U.S./Japan factories limit trade-war risk, so a rise toward 140 dollars within three months looks realistic.
Primary drivers
- Oversold reading and better trend echo March setup that led to a 22% rally.
- 13-18% memory price rise expected, likely to lift profit margins in fiscal 2025.
- High-speed HBM3e chips booked solid to mid-2026, scarce supply supports strong prices.
- Idaho and Japan plants dodge tariffs, while share trades cheaply at just 4.4x EBITDA.
How it played out
MU: target reached in 57 days
Lyra published MU at 119.99 on 2025-07-16 with expected growth of 25%. The thesis pointed to an oversold reading, a better trend, a 13-18% expected memory price rise for July-September, HBM3e chips booked solid to mid-2026, U.S. and Japan plants, and a cheap 4.4x EBITDA valuation.
Inside the window, MU reached the 149.83 target in 57 days. The stock later peaked at 200.92 on 2025-10-06, with a 67.5% peak gain. It ended the window at 186.98. The thesis played out and went well past the target.
What happened during the window
On 2025-09-23, Micron reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of 11.32 billion and adjusted earnings per share of 3.03. On 2025-10-02, TechRadar reported that Micron had begun shipping samples of HBM4 memory with more than 2.8TB/s of bandwidth and pin speeds above 11Gbps.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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