Track record · closed signal

Micron Technology (MU) — closed signal from December 8, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 8, 2026 — +51% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MU price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$237.81 – $241.80Entry zone — fair-value band

$245.25Published — price the day we called it

$306.44Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$455.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$370.30Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 25 days.

At window close

+51%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+85.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-1.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$370.30

last close inside the window, ended March 8, 2026

Peak price

$455.50

peak on January 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published December 8, 2025

Predicted growth

+25%

over the measurement window

Target price

$306.44

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$237.81 – $241.80

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$245.25

published December 8, 2025

Confidence

82%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Micron is shifting production away from lower-profit consumer products toward faster, higher-value memory used in servers and AI systems. That should make each sale more profitable. Analysts expect a strong quarterly report on December 17 with solid profit-per-share and revenue. Because the stock ran up quickly, we prefer buying on short drops toward established price levels.

Primary drivers

Moving production into higher-value AI and data center memory
Near-term boost expected from the Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings report
Media and analyst attention framing Micron as an AI memory winner
Better product mix should lift profit margins and investor sentiment

How it played out

MU: target reached in 25 days

Lyra published MU at $245.25 on 2025-12-08 with a short-term view and expected growth of 25%. The thesis pointed to Micron moving production toward higher-value server and artificial intelligence memory, a near-term boost from the Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings report, media and analyst attention, and a better product mix that could lift margins and sentiment.

Inside the window, MU reached the $306.44 target in 25 days. It kept rising to a peak of $455.50 on 2026-01-30, with a peak gain of 85.7%. It ended the window at $370.30. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-12-17, Micron reported fiscal Q1 2026 results that Investor's Business Daily said beat analyst estimates. On 2026-01-06, Tom's Hardware reported that Micron announced the 3610 SSD for OEMs.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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