Track record · closed signal

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) — closed signal from December 7, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 7, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

AVGO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$389.49 Published $485.94 Target $330.48 Window close $413.82 Peak
$378.55 – $393.49Entry zone — fair-value band
$389.49Published — price the day we called it
$485.94Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$413.82Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$330.48Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 25% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$413.82
peak on December 10, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+6.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$330.48
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
December 7, 2025 – March 7, 2026

The thesis — published December 7, 2025

Predicted growth
+25%
over the measurement window
Target price
$485.94
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$378.55 – $393.49
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$389.49
published December 7, 2025
Confidence
61%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Broadcom is tied closely to AI data centers and networking. Investors are excited before earnings because AI chips and the VMware deal could lift sales, but expectations are high. If results beat forecasts there is upside; if they disappoint the stock could fall quickly. This makes the name higher risk around the report.

Primary drivers

  • Its AI chips and networking products sell to very large data centers and cloud operators.
  • Earnings coming soon could show AI-related revenue growth and change the outlook.
  • A lot more people are buying than usual, showing strong pre-event interest.
  • Market excitement is far above the company's current results, so a miss could cause a sharp drop.

How it played out

AVGO: the target was not reached

Lyra published AVGO at $389.49 on 2025-12-07 with expected growth of 25%. The thesis pointed to Broadcom's links to artificial intelligence data centers and networking, an earnings report coming soon, unusually heavy buying interest, and the VMware deal as possible support for sales. It also noted high expectations and higher risk around the report.

Inside the window from 2025-12-07 to 2026-03-07, AVGO peaked at $413.82 on 2025-12-10, a 6.2% gain. It stayed below the $485.94 target and never reached it. The stock ended at $330.48. The thesis only partly played out, because there was an early rise, but the target was missed and the window ended below the publication price.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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