Track record · closed signal

Pfizer Inc. (PFE) — closed signal from December 7, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 7, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

PFE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$26.03 Published $29.41 Target $27.05 Window close $27.94 Peak
$25.00 – $26.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$26.03Published — price the day we called it
$29.41Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$27.94Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$27.05Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 56% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$27.94
peak on February 11, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+7.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$27.05
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
December 7, 2025 – March 7, 2026

The thesis — published December 7, 2025

Predicted growth
+13%
over the measurement window
Target price
$29.41
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$25.00 – $26.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$26.03
published December 7, 2025
Confidence
61%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Pfizer is a big drug company that lost COVID sales and is rebuilding growth with new drugs. Strong Phase 3 results for HYMPAVZI (93 percent fewer bleeds) give a clear new-product story, but revenue from Paxlovid is fading so short-term profits look weak. The stock is low, showing early signs of recovery, and can be bought as a slower income and recovery idea.

Primary drivers

  • HYMPAVZI cut bleeds by 93 percent in a key trial, a clear product win.
  • Management is replacing fading COVID sales with new drug launches.
  • Lots more people are buying than usual, hinting at an early price recovery.
  • Pays a dividend and is steady healthcare exposure versus riskier tech names.

How it played out

PFE: target not reached in the window

Lyra published PFE at 26.03 on 2025-12-07 with 13% expected growth and a 29.41 target. The thesis pointed to HYMPAVZI cutting bleeds by 93 percent in a key trial, new drug launches replacing fading COVID sales, heavier buying than usual, and the dividend as steadier healthcare exposure.

Inside the window, PFE rose but did not reach 29.41. Its peak was 27.94 on 2026-02-11, a 7.3% gain. It ended at 27.05 on 2026-03-07. The thesis partially played out on price, but the target was missed. It never got there.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-03, Pfizer reported fourth-quarter 2025 sales of $17.56 billion and adjusted earnings of 66 cents per share. The report said Comirnaty revenue fell 35% and Paxlovid revenue fell 70%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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