Track record · closed signal

The Coca-Cola Company (KO) — closed signal from December 6, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 6, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

KO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$70.00 Published $78.40 Target $77.04 Window close $82.00 Peak
$69.00 – $71.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$70.00Published — price the day we called it
$78.40Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$82.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$77.04Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 61 days.

Peak price
$82.00
peak on February 27, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+17.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$77.04
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
61
Window
December 6, 2025 – March 6, 2026

The thesis — published December 6, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$78.40
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$69.00 – $71.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$70.00
published December 6, 2025
Confidence
60%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Coca-Cola is a steady, defensive company known for reliable dividends. Profitability improved recently, and a big event in 2026 could help sales. Indicators show selling has slowed and many buyers may return, so the stock could rise a few to low double digits over a few months and act as a stabilizer in riskier portfolios.

Primary drivers

  • Market sentiment is strong even though business growth is modest.
  • Margins improved by 120 basis points and the dividend streak is long.
  • Recent price activity shows selling has likely paused and buyers may step in.
  • Defensive company with potential sales boost from the 2026 World Cup.

How it played out

KO: target reached in 61 days

Lyra published KO at $70 on 2025-12-06 with a short-term view for 12% growth. The thesis pointed to strong market sentiment despite modest business growth, improved margins, a long dividend streak, selling pressure that had likely paused, and a possible sales boost from the 2026 World Cup.

Inside the window, KO reached a peak of $82 on 2026-02-27. That was above the $78.4 target, with a peak gain of 17.1%. The target was reached in 61 days. The stock ended the window at $77.04, below the target but still above the published price. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On December 11, 2025, Business Insider reported that Coca-Cola had named Henrique Braun as its next chief executive, effective March 31, 2026. On February 8, 2026, Good Housekeeping reported that Coca-Cola had announced the nationwide return of Diet Coke Cherry and the launch of Coca-Cola Cherry Float in the U.S. and Canada.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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