Track record · closed signal

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — closed signal from July 15, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 13, 2025 — +18.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

PLTR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$149.15 Published $176.00 Target $177.21 Window close $190.00 Peak
$140.00 – $150.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$149.15Published — price the day we called it
$176.00Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$190.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$177.21Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 21 days.

At window close
+18.8%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+27.4%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+6.9%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$177.21
last close inside the window, ended October 13, 2025
Peak price
$190.00
peak on August 12, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
21

The thesis — published July 15, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$176.00
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$140.00 – $150.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$149.15
published July 15, 2025
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

PLTR shot up 36% in July and now sits about 14% above its recent average price, so it may pause or slip before moving again. A new rule lets the firm buy the chips it needs for its AI systems, clearing a major hurdle. Its list of signed-but-not-yet-delivered deals is still climbing more than 40%. Buying during dips near $145 aims for $170, but swings could be large because basic financial strength is still modest. Investors should size positions carefully.

Primary drivers

  • Relaxed chip export rules should speed up Palantirs AI platform rollouts worldwide.
  • Commercial sales now pass 50% of revenue, and the order backlog climbs about 40% yearly.
  • Share momentum is perfect, yet average fundamentals mean sharp pullbacks can happen.
  • Large funds bought roughly triple their usual volume, giving the stock medium-term support.

How it played out

PLTR: target reached in 21 days

Lyra published PLTR at $149.15 on July 15, 2025, with an expected gain of 18%. The thesis pointed to relaxed chip export rules for artificial intelligence systems, commercial sales above 50% of revenue, signed but not yet delivered deals climbing more than 40%, strong share momentum, and large-fund buying. It also warned that swings could be large.

Inside the window, PLTR reached the $176 target in 21 days. The peak was $190 on August 12, with a peak gain of 27.4%. It ended the window on October 13 at $177.21, still above the target. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On August 4, 2025, Palantir reported second-quarter revenue of $1 billion and adjusted earnings of 16 cents per share. Business Insider also reported that the U.S. Space Force awarded Palantir a $218 million delivery order and raised the Maven Smart System spending ceiling to $795 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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