Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — closed signal from July 15, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 13, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 21 days.
The thesis — published July 15, 2025
PLTR shot up 36% in July and now sits about 14% above its recent average price, so it may pause or slip before moving again. A new rule lets the firm buy the chips it needs for its AI systems, clearing a major hurdle. Its list of signed-but-not-yet-delivered deals is still climbing more than 40%. Buying during dips near $145 aims for $170, but swings could be large because basic financial strength is still modest. Investors should size positions carefully.
Primary drivers
- Relaxed chip export rules should speed up Palantirs AI platform rollouts worldwide.
- Commercial sales now pass 50% of revenue, and the order backlog climbs about 40% yearly.
- Share momentum is perfect, yet average fundamentals mean sharp pullbacks can happen.
- Large funds bought roughly triple their usual volume, giving the stock medium-term support.
How it played out
PLTR: target reached in 21 days
Lyra published PLTR at $149.15 on July 15, 2025, with an expected gain of 18%. The thesis pointed to relaxed chip export rules for artificial intelligence systems, commercial sales above 50% of revenue, signed but not yet delivered deals climbing more than 40%, strong share momentum, and large-fund buying. It also warned that swings could be large.
Inside the window, PLTR reached the $176 target in 21 days. The peak was $190 on August 12, with a peak gain of 27.4%. It ended the window on October 13 at $177.21, still above the target. The thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On August 4, 2025, Palantir reported second-quarter revenue of $1 billion and adjusted earnings of 16 cents per share. Business Insider also reported that the U.S. Space Force awarded Palantir a $218 million delivery order and raised the Maven Smart System spending ceiling to $795 million.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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