Track record · closed signal

Intel Corporation (INTC) — closed signal from December 6, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 6, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

INTC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$39.00 – $42.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$41.41Published — price the day we called it

$52.59Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$54.60Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$43.42Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 46 days.

Peak price

$54.60

peak on January 22, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+31.9%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$43.42

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

Window

December 6, 2025 – March 6, 2026

The thesis — published December 6, 2025

Predicted growth

+27%

over the measurement window

Target price

$52.59

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$39.00 – $42.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$41.41

published December 6, 2025

Confidence

65%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Intel is repositioning from mainly making its own chips to also making chips for others and adding advanced packaging. Investors are excited, especially after Mobileye and Amkor news, so the stock may keep rising if the company executes. But the business still has weak underlying results, so only buy small pullbacks and control risk.

Primary drivers

Momentum and investor mood are very positive despite weak results.
Mobileye IPO news and Amkor deal give concrete business reasons to revalue shares.
U.S. policy backing for domestic chip production supports the foundry plan.
Big gap between sentiment and weak fundamentals makes this risky and execution dependent.

How it played out

INTC: target reached in 46 days

Lyra published INTC at $41.41 on 2025-12-06 with a short-term thesis for 27% growth and a $52.59 target. The thesis pointed to a shift toward making chips for others, advanced packaging, positive investor mood, Mobileye news, the Amkor deal, U.S. policy backing for domestic chip production, and the risk that weak results made execution matter.

Inside the window, INTC reached a peak of $54.60 on 2026-01-22. That was above the $52.59 target, and it reached the target in 46 days. The stock ended the window at $43.42 on 2026-03-06. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On January 5, 2026, Intel launched Core Ultra Series 3 at CES 2026. On January 22, 2026, Intel reported Q4 2025 revenue of $13.7 billion and a $600 million net loss.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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