Track record · closed signal

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — closed signal from December 6, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 6, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

PLTR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$181.76 Published $239.92 Target $157.16 Window close $198.88 Peak
$175.00 – $182.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$181.76Published — price the day we called it
$239.92Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$198.88Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$157.16Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 29% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$198.88
peak on December 22, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+9.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$157.16
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
December 6, 2025 – March 6, 2026

The thesis — published December 6, 2025

Predicted growth
+32%
over the measurement window
Target price
$239.92
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$175.00 – $182.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$181.76
published December 6, 2025
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Palantir is popular right now because of AI-related contracts and a new energy grid platform announced with big partners. That attention has pulled in institutional interest and ETFs, which can push the stock higher quickly. But sentiment is much stronger than the company's underlying numbers, so gains can be big and losses can come fast. Treat this as a short-term trade and manage risk closely.

Primary drivers

  • Short-term ranking and momentum place it among top performers.
  • Chain Reaction grid news and AI ETF inclusion boost visibility.
  • New government and commercial AI deals grow backlog and use cases.
  • High valuation versus fundamentals makes risk controls essential.

How it played out

PLTR: target was not reached by March 6

Lyra published PLTR at $181.76 on December 6, 2025, as a short-term trade with 32% expected growth. The thesis pointed to short-term ranking and momentum, Chain Reaction grid news, artificial-intelligence ETF inclusion, new government and commercial deals, and high valuation risk.

Inside the window, PLTR rose to $198.88 on December 22, 2025. That was a 9.4% peak gain, but it stayed below the $239.92 target. It never got there. By March 6, 2026, it ended at $157.16. The thesis partially played out on direction early, but missed the target.

What happened during the window

On February 3, 2026, MarketWatch reported that Palantir had announced fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $1.41 billion and net income of $609 million. The same report said Palantir forecast fiscal 2026 revenue between $7.18 billion and $7.20 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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