Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from December 6, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 6, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$182.41 Published $233.48 Target $177.82 Window close $197.63 Peak
$165.00 – $180.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$182.41Published — price the day we called it
$233.48Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$197.63Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$177.82Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 30% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$197.63
peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+8.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$177.82
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
December 6, 2025 – March 6, 2026

The thesis — published December 6, 2025

Predicted growth
+28%
over the measurement window
Target price
$233.48
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$165.00 – $180.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$182.41
published December 6, 2025
Confidence
69%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Nvidia is the most important stock for the current AI hardware boom. Its business and investor interest are very strong, but the stock is crowded so short-term price action may be choppy. Analysts expect several months of sideways trading and recommend adding shares when the price drops about 8-12% instead of buying new highs.

Primary drivers

  • Huge lead in chips used for AI and strong demand from data centers.
  • Media talk of a massive future value and many ETFs holding the stock.
  • Investor sentiment and composite scores stay high despite a short pause.
  • Recent price weakness suggests adding on notable dips to reduce crowding risk.

How it played out

NVDA: target was not reached

Lyra published NVDA at 182.41 on 2025-12-06 with 28% expected growth and a 233.48 target. The thesis pointed to its lead in chips used for artificial intelligence, strong data-center demand, heavy ETF ownership, high investor sentiment, and a plan to add on notable dips because the stock was crowded.

Inside the window, NVDA rose to a 197.63 peak on 2026-02-25, a 8.3% gain. That stayed below the 233.48 target. It never got there. By 2026-03-06, the stock ended at 177.82. The thesis partially played out on direction, but missed the target.

What happened during the window

On February 25, 2026, Nvidia reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $68.13 billion, with data-center revenue of $62.3 billion. The report said first-quarter guidance was above analyst estimates.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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