New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (EDU) — closed signal from December 5, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 5, 2026 — +1.7% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 54 days.
The thesis — published December 5, 2025
This is a risky, short-term rebound idea in Chinese education. Some momentum signs suggest a possible bounce, but other momentum measures are still negative and government policy risk is real. A recent analyst noted a competitor looks cheaper, so the stock is not a clear bargain. Any recovery over the next three months should be small and position sizes kept low and monitored closely.
Primary drivers
- Stock looks oversold, so a bounce is possible
- Company is restructuring after strict tutoring rules
- Analyst notes competitor may offer better value
- Ongoing policy uncertainty keeps conviction low
How it played out
EDU: target reached in 54 days
Lyra published EDU as a risky short-term rebound idea at 53.01 on 2025-12-05. The thesis expected 20% growth over the window. It pointed to an oversold stock, a possible bounce, restructuring after strict tutoring rules, a note that a competitor may offer better value, and ongoing policy uncertainty. Conviction was low at 58.
Inside the window, EDU reached the 63.61 target. The stock peaked at 64.95 on 2026-02-04, with a 22.5% gain, and reached the target in 54 days. It ended the window at 53.89 on 2026-03-05. The thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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