New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (EDU) — closed signal from December 5, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 5, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 54 days.
The thesis — published December 5, 2025
This is a risky, short-term rebound idea in Chinese education. Some momentum signs suggest a possible bounce, but other momentum measures are still negative and government policy risk is real. A recent analyst noted a competitor looks cheaper, so the stock is not a clear bargain. Any recovery over the next three months should be small and position sizes kept low and monitored closely.
Primary drivers
- Stock looks oversold, so a bounce is possible
- Company is restructuring after strict tutoring rules
- Analyst notes competitor may offer better value
- Ongoing policy uncertainty keeps conviction low
How it played out
EDU: target reached in 54 days
Lyra published EDU as a risky short-term rebound idea at 53.01 on 2025-12-05. The thesis expected 20% growth over the window. It pointed to an oversold stock, a possible bounce, restructuring after strict tutoring rules, a note that a competitor may offer better value, and ongoing policy uncertainty. Conviction was low at 58.
Inside the window, EDU reached the 63.61 target. The stock peaked at 64.95 on 2026-02-04, with a 22.5% gain, and reached the target in 54 days. It ended the window at 53.89 on 2026-03-05. The thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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