Track record · closed signal

Intel Corporation (INTC) — closed signal from December 5, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 5, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

INTC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$41.89 Published $51.94 Target $45.95 Window close $54.60 Peak
$39.50 – $41.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$41.89Published — price the day we called it
$51.94Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$54.60Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$45.95Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 47 days.

Peak price
$54.60
peak on January 22, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+30.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$45.95
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
47
Window
December 5, 2025 – March 5, 2026

The thesis — published December 5, 2025

Predicted growth
+24%
over the measurement window
Target price
$51.94
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$39.50 – $41.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$41.89
published December 5, 2025
Confidence
60%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

This is a short-term trade based on excitement around chips and AI infrastructure, not on the companys current financial strength. Right now many investors are buying, and news about faster data links and hopes for easier interest rates help sentiment. But Intel faces stiff competition and execution risks, so treat it as a swing trade and expect volatility.

Primary drivers

  • Lots more people are buying than usual, showing strong buying momentum
  • Big push to build contract chipmaking and AI-focused processors
  • Positive backdrop from AI demand and hopes for lower interest rates
  • Sentiment is high even though company fundamentals are weak

How it played out

INTC: target reached in 47 days

Lyra published INTC at 41.89 on 2025-12-05 as a short-term trade with expected growth of 24%. The thesis pointed to unusually strong buying momentum, a push into contract chipmaking and artificial-intelligence-focused processors, a positive backdrop from demand tied to artificial intelligence and hopes for lower interest rates, while also noting weak fundamentals and execution risk.

Inside the window, INTC reached the 51.94 target. It peaked at 54.60 on 2026-01-22, with a peak gain of 30.4%, and reached the target in 47 days. By 2026-03-05, it ended at 45.95. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-05, Intel launched Core Ultra Series 3 at CES 2026. On 2026-01-22, Intel reported Q4 2025 revenue of $13.7 billion and a $600 million net loss.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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