Track record · closed signal

Salesforce, Inc. (CRM) — closed signal from December 5, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 5, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

CRM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$239.23 – $254.18Entry zone — fair-value band

$254.18Published — price the day we called it

$317.21Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$269.11Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$201.39Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 24% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$269.11

peak on December 29, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+5.9%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$201.39

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

December 5, 2025 – March 5, 2026

The thesis — published December 5, 2025

Predicted growth

+25%

over the measurement window

Target price

$317.21

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$239.23 – $254.18

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$254.18

published December 5, 2025

Confidence

62%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Salesforce is a big software company pushing into AI, and recent news about Agentforce strengthens that story. Prices have run up a lot, so buying now means paying for that excitement. Because the stock looks stretched, it's likely smarter to wait for a modest pullback before buying to get a better entry price.

Primary drivers

Very strong momentum; recent price trend is dominant
Agentforce rebrand highlights an aggressive AI focus
Investors are excited but company fundamentals are more modest
High valuation and overbought readings increase risk of a pullback

How it played out

CRM: target was not reached

On Dec. 5, 2025, Lyra published a short-term CRM thesis at $254.18 with expected growth of 25% and a target of $317.21. The thesis pointed to strong momentum, the Agentforce rebrand, investor excitement around artificial intelligence, modest fundamentals, high valuation, and overbought readings that raised pullback risk.

Inside the window, CRM peaked at $269.11 on Dec. 29, 2025, for a 5.9% gain. It stayed below the target. By Mar. 5, 2026, it ended at $201.39. The thesis partly played out on the pullback risk, but the 25% upside target missed.

What happened during the window

On Dec. 5, 2025, Business Insider reported that Marc Benioff had discussed a possible Agentforce name change. On Feb. 26, 2026, MarketWatch reported Salesforce fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $11.20 billion and Agentforce annual recurring revenue of $800 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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