Track record · closed signal

The Coca-Cola Company (KO) — closed signal from December 5, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 5, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

KO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$70.57 Published $77.63 Target $77.03 Window close $82.00 Peak
$68.00 – $71.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$70.57Published — price the day we called it
$77.63Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$82.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$77.03Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 61 days.

Peak price
$82.00
peak on February 27, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+16.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$77.03
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
61
Window
December 5, 2025 – March 5, 2026

The thesis — published December 5, 2025

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$77.63
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$68.00 – $71.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$70.57
published December 5, 2025
Confidence
65%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Coca-Cola is a steady, low-risk stock that looks temporarily beaten down. A valuation study suggests the stock could be worth about $89, which is over 20% above the current price, and the World Cup 2026 deal plus ongoing marketing should help keep sales steady. This makes a gradual bounce likely even if long-term growth stays modest.

Primary drivers

  • Price looks unusually low compared with its longer term trend
  • Valuation study shows more than 20% upside to fair value
  • World Cup 2026 deal and marketing should support sales
  • Reliable cash flow and dividends provide defensive income

How it played out

KO: target reached in 61 days

Lyra published KO at 70.57 on 2025-12-05 with expected growth of 10%. The thesis pointed to a stock that looked unusually low against its longer term trend, a valuation study near 89 and over 20% upside, World Cup 2026 marketing support, and reliable cash flow and dividends.

Inside the window, KO reached the 77.63 target in 61 days. It peaked at 82 on 2026-02-27, a 16.2% gain. By 2026-03-05, it ended at 77.03. The thesis played out. The stock reached the target, then finished slightly below it.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-10, Coca-Cola reported fourth-quarter results. AP reported that global unit case volume rose 1%, and that the company expected organic revenue growth of 4% to 5% in 2026. MarketWatch also reported that fourth-quarter revenue was 11.82 billion, below the 12.05 billion FactSet estimate, while comparable earnings per share were 58 cents.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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