Track record · closed signal

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) — closed signal from December 5, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 5, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

JNJ price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$203.27 Published $223.59 Target $239.63 Window close $251.71 Peak
$198.00 – $205.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$203.27Published — price the day we called it
$223.59Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$251.71Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$239.63Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 53 days.

Peak price
$251.71
peak on March 2, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+23.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$239.63
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
53
Window
December 5, 2025 – March 5, 2026

The thesis — published December 5, 2025

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$223.59
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$198.00 – $205.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$203.27
published December 5, 2025
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

JNJ is a large, defensive healthcare company that has been sold down recently and now shows signs typical of stocks ready for a bounce. Analyst and Zacks commentary say expectations are modest, so you could see a small rebound over the next three months with limited downside versus riskier names.

Primary drivers

  • Indicators show the stock has been sold heavily and now may rebound
  • Investor sentiment is strong even if business growth is modest
  • Reliable cash flow and dividend make it a defensive holding
  • Analysts expect steady performance but limited upside

How it played out

JNJ: target reached in 53 days

Lyra published JNJ on 2025-12-05 at $203.27, looking for 10% growth over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to a heavily sold stock that might rebound, strong investor sentiment, reliable cash flow and dividend support, and steady performance with limited upside.

Inside the window, the stock reached the $223.59 target in 53 days. It later peaked at $251.71 on 2026-03-02, with a 23.8% gain at the peak. It ended the window at $239.63. The thesis played out, and the move went beyond the target.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-21, Johnson & Johnson reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $24.6 billion and forecast 2026 revenue of $100.5 billion. Barron's also reported on 2026-01-21 that adjusted earnings were $2.46 a share and that the stock fell that day after the report.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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