Track record · closed signal

AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) — closed signal from December 5, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 5, 2026 — +9.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AZN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$180.22 Published $420.90 Target $197.52 Window close $210.50 Peak
$340.79 – $360.38Entry zone — fair-value band
$180.22Published — price the day we called it
$420.90Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$210.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$197.52Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 93% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
+9.6%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+16.8%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
-0.3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$197.52
last close inside the window, ended March 5, 2026
Peak price
$210.50
peak on February 18, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published December 5, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$420.90
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$340.79 – $360.38
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$180.22
published December 5, 2025
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

AstraZeneca is a large, well-known drugmaker that fell too far and may be starting to recover. Recent price action looks steadier and the Salesforce Agentforce deal shows the company is investing in how it sells medicines. Sentiment is positive but company fundamentals are only modest, so we expect a gradual recovery over a few months rather than a sudden surge.

Primary drivers

  • Price looks too low and is beginning to stabilize after a steep drop
  • Market sentiment is stronger than the company's fundamental score
  • New Salesforce Agentforce deal should improve customer engagement and sales
  • Patents expiring and pricing pressure could limit gains in the medium term

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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