Track record · closed signal

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) — closed signal from December 5, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 5, 2026 — -14.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AVGO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$388.57 Published $465.39 Target $332.77 Window close $413.82 Peak
$368.59 – $393.49Entry zone — fair-value band
$388.57Published — price the day we called it
$465.39Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$413.82Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$332.77Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 33% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-14.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+6.5%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
-0.3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$332.77
last close inside the window, ended March 5, 2026
Peak price
$413.82
peak on December 10, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published December 5, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$465.39
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$368.59 – $393.49
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$388.57
published December 5, 2025
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Broadcom makes chips and networking software used in data centers, and demand from AI is driving faster sales growth. Management now expects AI-related sales to grow even faster than this year's strong pace, which supports a longer-term growth story. Charts show strong buying and steady volume. Valuation and integration risks mean keep position size moderate.

Primary drivers

  • AI and custom chips driving large sales growth
  • Strong price momentum showing high buyer interest
  • Large investors buying with steadily rising volume
  • Valuation and deal-integration risks limit position size

How it played out

AVGO: early gain faded before target

Lyra published AVGO at $388.57 on 2025-12-05 with expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to data-center chips and networking software, faster artificial-intelligence-related sales growth, strong buying, steady volume, and large-investor interest. It also noted valuation and deal-integration risks.

Inside the window, AVGO rose to a peak of $413.82 on 2025-12-10, a 6.5% gain. The target was $465.39, and the stock never reached it. By 2026-03-05, it ended at $332.77. The thesis partly showed up in the early move, but it missed the target and finished below the published price.

What happened during the window

On 2026-03-04, Broadcom reported fiscal first-quarter results and gave a fiscal second-quarter revenue forecast. The report said first-quarter revenue was $19.31 billion and that second-quarter revenue was expected to be $22 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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