Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc. (Class A) (GOOGL) — closed signal from December 5, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 5, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOGL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$321.49 Published $379.11 Target $300.88 Window close $349.00 Peak
$309.59 – $324.58Entry zone — fair-value band
$321.49Published — price the day we called it
$379.11Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$349.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$300.88Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 48% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$349.00
peak on February 3, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+8.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$300.88
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
December 5, 2025 – March 5, 2026

The thesis — published December 5, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$379.11
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$309.59 – $324.58
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$321.49
published December 5, 2025
Confidence
65%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet is a solid core holding because it leads in AI tools and still earns a lot from online ads and YouTube. Recent AI progress and a higher analyst target imply better competitive standing. Price action and strong trading volume suggest steady buying interest, though regulation and large-cap competition could limit upside.

Primary drivers

  • Gemini improvements strengthen Alphabet's AI offerings
  • Strong buying interest and rising price trend support the setup
  • Analyst target increase to $400 reflects higher expectations
  • Ongoing regulation and privacy issues can create volatility

How it played out

GOOGL: target was not reached

Lyra published GOOGL at $321.49 on 2025-12-05 with an expected gain of 18%. The thesis pointed to Gemini improvements, online ads and YouTube earnings, buying interest, a rising price trend, and an analyst target increase to $400. It also noted regulation and privacy issues as risks.

Inside the window, GOOGL peaked at $349 on 2026-02-03, a gain of 8.6%. That stayed below the $379.11 target. The window ended on 2026-03-05 at $300.88. The thesis partially played out on the move to the peak, but it did not reach the published target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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