Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc. (Class A) (GOOGL) — closed signal from December 5, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 5, 2026 — -6.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOGL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$309.59 – $324.58Entry zone — fair-value band

$321.49Published — price the day we called it

$379.11Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$349.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$300.88Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 48% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-6.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+8.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-0.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$300.88

last close inside the window, ended March 5, 2026

Peak price

$349.00

peak on February 3, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published December 5, 2025

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$379.11

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$309.59 – $324.58

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$321.49

published December 5, 2025

Confidence

65%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet is a solid core holding because it leads in AI tools and still earns a lot from online ads and YouTube. Recent AI progress and a higher analyst target imply better competitive standing. Price action and strong trading volume suggest steady buying interest, though regulation and large-cap competition could limit upside.

Primary drivers

Gemini improvements strengthen Alphabet's AI offerings
Strong buying interest and rising price trend support the setup
Analyst target increase to $400 reflects higher expectations
Ongoing regulation and privacy issues can create volatility

How it played out

GOOGL: target was not reached

Lyra published GOOGL at $321.49 on 2025-12-05 with an expected gain of 18%. The thesis pointed to Gemini improvements, online ads and YouTube earnings, buying interest, a rising price trend, and an analyst target increase to $400. It also noted regulation and privacy issues as risks.

Inside the window, GOOGL peaked at $349 on 2026-02-03, a gain of 8.6%. That stayed below the $379.11 target. The window ended on 2026-03-05 at $300.88. The thesis partially played out on the move to the peak, but it did not reach the published target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All GOOGL signals