Track record · closed signal

Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) — closed signal from December 4, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 4, 2026 — -57.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

HIMS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$36.50 – $38.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$38.33Published — price the day we called it

$44.46Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$40.99Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$16.45Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 43% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-57.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+6.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+0.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$16.45

last close inside the window, ended March 4, 2026

Peak price

$40.99

peak on December 5, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published December 4, 2025

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$44.46

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$36.50 – $38.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$38.33

published December 4, 2025

Confidence

60%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Hims & Hers runs a telehealth service that is growing fast: recent sales were about 50% higher than the same quarter last year. But profit per share fell a lot and the stock dropped after earnings, so investors worry about margins and value. Management bought YourBio to add at-home testing, which could make customers use the service more. Overall, excitement is high but the business is not yet consistently profitable, so this is better for short-term traders who accept big swings.

Primary drivers

Sales grew about 50% compared with last year, showing demand
Earnings per share fell sharply and shares dropped after results
Buying YourBio adds at-home testing to the service mix
Strong market excitement but weaker steady profitability

How it played out

HIMS: the thesis did not reach its target

Lyra published HIMS at $38.33 on 2025-12-04 with 16% expected growth and a target of $44.46. The thesis pointed to sales about 50% higher than the same quarter last year, weaker earnings per share, the YourBio deal for at-home testing, and strong excitement despite uneven profitability.

Inside the window, the stock peaked at $40.99 on 2025-12-05, a 6.9% gain. It stayed below the target. By 2026-03-04, it ended at $16.45. The thesis partially caught a brief early move, but the published target did not play out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-19, Hims & Hers announced an agreement to buy Eucalyptus in a $1.15 billion deal. On 2026-02-24, MarketWatch reported that Hims & Hers had posted fourth-quarter sales of $617.8 million and earnings of 8 cents per share, while its first-quarter profit forecast missed analyst expectations.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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