Track record · closed signal

Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) — closed signal from December 4, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 4, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

HIMS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$38.33 Published $44.46 Target $16.45 Window close $40.99 Peak
$36.50 – $38.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$38.33Published — price the day we called it
$44.46Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$40.99Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$16.45Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 43% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$40.99
peak on December 5, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+6.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$16.45
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
December 4, 2025 – March 4, 2026

The thesis — published December 4, 2025

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$44.46
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$36.50 – $38.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$38.33
published December 4, 2025
Confidence
60%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Hims & Hers runs a telehealth service that is growing fast: recent sales were about 50% higher than the same quarter last year. But profit per share fell a lot and the stock dropped after earnings, so investors worry about margins and value. Management bought YourBio to add at-home testing, which could make customers use the service more. Overall, excitement is high but the business is not yet consistently profitable, so this is better for short-term traders who accept big swings.

Primary drivers

  • Sales grew about 50% compared with last year, showing demand
  • Earnings per share fell sharply and shares dropped after results
  • Buying YourBio adds at-home testing to the service mix
  • Strong market excitement but weaker steady profitability

How it played out

HIMS: the thesis did not reach its target

Lyra published HIMS at $38.33 on 2025-12-04 with 16% expected growth and a target of $44.46. The thesis pointed to sales about 50% higher than the same quarter last year, weaker earnings per share, the YourBio deal for at-home testing, and strong excitement despite uneven profitability.

Inside the window, the stock peaked at $40.99 on 2025-12-05, a 6.9% gain. It stayed below the target. By 2026-03-04, it ended at $16.45. The thesis partially caught a brief early move, but the published target did not play out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-19, Hims & Hers announced an agreement to buy Eucalyptus in a $1.15 billion deal. On 2026-02-24, MarketWatch reported that Hims & Hers had posted fourth-quarter sales of $617.8 million and earnings of 8 cents per share, while its first-quarter profit forecast missed analyst expectations.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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