Track record · closed signal

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) — closed signal from December 4, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 4, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

ORCL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$209.86 Published $256.03 Target $152.37 Window close $225.32 Peak
$205.00 – $210.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$209.86Published — price the day we called it
$256.03Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$225.32Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$152.37Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 34% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$225.32
peak on December 10, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+7.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$152.37
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
December 4, 2025 – March 4, 2026

The thesis — published December 4, 2025

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$256.03
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$205.00 – $210.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$209.86
published December 4, 2025
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Oracle is positioned to benefit from companies buying more AI cloud services. Management and analysts expect Oracle Cloud Infrastructure to reach about $18 billion in revenue by fiscal 2026, and a recent favorable analyst rating supports that view. The stock has recent buying momentum and trading below longer-term price targets. Buying around $205-$210 offers direct exposure to AI cloud growth over the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

  • OCI revenue could reach about $18B by fiscal 2026
  • New analyst upgrade with a positive long-term view
  • Recent strong buying momentum after a price pullback
  • Well positioned to gain from AI and cloud spending

How it played out

ORCL: target was not reached

Lyra published ORCL on 2025-12-04 at $209.86 for a short-term window. The thesis expected 22% growth and pointed to Oracle Cloud Infrastructure possibly reaching about $18 billion by fiscal 2026, a new analyst upgrade, recent buying momentum after a pullback, and exposure to artificial intelligence and cloud spending.

Inside the window, ORCL rose to $225.32 on 2025-12-10, a 7.4% peak gain. That stayed below the $256.03 target. It never got there. By 2026-03-04, the stock ended at $152.37. The thesis partially played out early, then missed the full target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-12-10, Oracle reported quarterly revenue of $16.1 billion and said cloud infrastructure revenue was $4.1 billion. On 2025-12-15, TechRadar reported Oracle had disclosed $248 billion of additional lease commitments tied mostly to data centers and cloud capacity arrangements.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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