Track record · closed signal

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) — closed signal from December 4, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 4, 2026 — -27.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ORCL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$205.00 – $210.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$209.86Published — price the day we called it

$256.03Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$225.32Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$152.37Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 34% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-27.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+7.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+0.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$152.37

last close inside the window, ended March 4, 2026

Peak price

$225.32

peak on December 10, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published December 4, 2025

Predicted growth

+22%

over the measurement window

Target price

$256.03

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$205.00 – $210.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$209.86

published December 4, 2025

Confidence

82%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Oracle is positioned to benefit from companies buying more AI cloud services. Management and analysts expect Oracle Cloud Infrastructure to reach about $18 billion in revenue by fiscal 2026, and a recent favorable analyst rating supports that view. The stock has recent buying momentum and trading below longer-term price targets. Buying around $205-$210 offers direct exposure to AI cloud growth over the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

OCI revenue could reach about $18B by fiscal 2026
New analyst upgrade with a positive long-term view
Recent strong buying momentum after a price pullback
Well positioned to gain from AI and cloud spending

How it played out

ORCL: target was not reached

Lyra published ORCL on 2025-12-04 at $209.86 for a short-term window. The thesis expected 22% growth and pointed to Oracle Cloud Infrastructure possibly reaching about $18 billion by fiscal 2026, a new analyst upgrade, recent buying momentum after a pullback, and exposure to artificial intelligence and cloud spending.

Inside the window, ORCL rose to $225.32 on 2025-12-10, a 7.4% peak gain. That stayed below the $256.03 target. It never got there. By 2026-03-04, the stock ended at $152.37. The thesis partially played out early, then missed the full target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-12-10, Oracle reported quarterly revenue of $16.1 billion and said cloud infrastructure revenue was $4.1 billion. On 2025-12-15, TechRadar reported Oracle had disclosed $248 billion of additional lease commitments tied mostly to data centers and cloud capacity arrangements.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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