Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from December 4, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 4, 2026 — +0.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$181.75 Published $225.37 Target $183.04 Window close $197.63 Peak
$175.00 – $182.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$181.75Published — price the day we called it
$225.37Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$197.63Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$183.04Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 36% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
+0.7%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+8.7%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+0.4%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$183.04
last close inside the window, ended March 4, 2026
Peak price
$197.63
peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published December 4, 2025

Predicted growth
+24%
over the measurement window
Target price
$225.37
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$175.00 – $182.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$181.75
published December 4, 2025
Confidence
90%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Nvidia makes the chips that power modern AI and data centers. The stock has pulled back a bit even though many investors are still buying and talking positively about it. The CEO meeting with U.S. officials lowers a government-related risk. Because demand for AI computing looks steady and a key policy worry eased, buying near the current price looks reasonable for the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

  • Leads the market in GPUs used by AI and data centers
  • Stock is temporarily low while investor interest stays high
  • CEO talks with U.S. officials reduce policy-related risk
  • Growing demand for AI computing supports future sales

How it played out

NVDA: target was not reached inside the window

Lyra published NVDA at $181.75 on 2025-12-04 with an expected 24% short-term gain. The thesis pointed to NVIDIA's lead in GPUs used by artificial intelligence and data centers, a pullback while investor interest stayed high, CEO talks with U.S. officials, and growing demand for artificial intelligence computing.

Inside the window, NVDA rose to a peak of $197.63 on 2026-02-25, a peak gain of 8.7%. It stayed below the $225.37 target and never reached it. By 2026-03-04, it ended at $183.04. The thesis partially played out on direction, but missed the target.

What happened during the window

On February 25, 2026, NVIDIA reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $68.13 billion and data center revenue of $62.3 billion. That was an announcement during the measurement window, not a stated cause of the stock move.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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