NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from December 4, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 4, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 36% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published December 4, 2025
Nvidia makes the chips that power modern AI and data centers. The stock has pulled back a bit even though many investors are still buying and talking positively about it. The CEO meeting with U.S. officials lowers a government-related risk. Because demand for AI computing looks steady and a key policy worry eased, buying near the current price looks reasonable for the next 0-3 months.
Primary drivers
- Leads the market in GPUs used by AI and data centers
- Stock is temporarily low while investor interest stays high
- CEO talks with U.S. officials reduce policy-related risk
- Growing demand for AI computing supports future sales
How it played out
NVDA: target was not reached inside the window
Lyra published NVDA at $181.75 on 2025-12-04 with an expected 24% short-term gain. The thesis pointed to NVIDIA's lead in GPUs used by artificial intelligence and data centers, a pullback while investor interest stayed high, CEO talks with U.S. officials, and growing demand for artificial intelligence computing.
Inside the window, NVDA rose to a peak of $197.63 on 2026-02-25, a peak gain of 8.7%. It stayed below the $225.37 target and never reached it. By 2026-03-04, it ended at $183.04. The thesis partially played out on direction, but missed the target.
What happened during the window
On February 25, 2026, NVIDIA reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $68.13 billion and data center revenue of $62.3 billion. That was an announcement during the measurement window, not a stated cause of the stock move.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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