Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group ADR (MUFG) — closed signal from July 15, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 13, 2025 — +10.2% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 9 days.
The thesis — published July 15, 2025
The share price has pulled back to an area where it often bounces 6-8%. The bank looks cheap at only 0.8 times the value of its assets and keeps over 12% core capital, showing strength. Higher US rates let it charge more on dollar loans, while low Japanese rates keep its own borrowing costs low. A new partnership with Sakana AI should cut expenses and has investors feeling upbeat. A move toward $14.60 over the next few months seems reasonable.
Primary drivers
- Price sits where past moves often led to 6-8% rebounds within about five weeks.
- Shares cost 0.8x book value and hold 12% capital, marking them as sturdy and cheap.
- Dollar loans now pay more while Japan keeps funding cheap, boosting profit margin.
- Sakana AI deal aims to cut costs, lifting sentiment and expected return on equity.
How it played out
MUFG: target reached in 9 days
Lyra published MUFG on 2025-07-15 at $13.45 with expected growth of 9%. The thesis pointed to a rebound zone where past moves often led to 6-8% gains, 0.8x book value, 12% capital, higher returns on dollar loans, low Japanese funding costs, and a Sakana artificial intelligence partnership aimed at lowering expenses.
Inside the window, MUFG reached the target in 9 days. It later peaked at $16.09 on 2025-09-30, a 19.6% gain, and ended at $14.82 on 2025-10-13. The published thesis played out. It did more than reach the target.
What happened during the window
On 2025-08-04, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group reported lower first-quarter net profit and kept its fiscal-year profit target. This was an announced company result during the measurement window, not a stated cause of the share move.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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