Track record · closed signal

Pfizer Inc. (PFE) — closed signal from December 3, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 3, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

PFE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$25.72 Published $30.86 Target $26.58 Window close $27.94 Peak
$25.00 – $27.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$25.72Published — price the day we called it
$30.86Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$27.94Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$26.58Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 43% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$27.94
peak on February 11, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+8.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$26.58
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
December 3, 2025 – March 3, 2026

The thesis — published December 3, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$30.86
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$25.00 – $27.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$25.72
published December 3, 2025
Confidence
76%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Pfizer is a big drug company that looks like it is starting to recover. Price patterns and value estimates suggest the shares are cheaper than they should be, and progress on non-Covid medicines may improve sentiment in the coming quarter despite possible regulatory setbacks.

Primary drivers

  • Price action shows early signs of a recovery in investor interest.
  • Shares appear cheaper than the analyst-estimated fair value.
  • A broad drug pipeline can replace fading Covid sales over time.
  • Large market size and dividend reduce sudden swings in price.

How it played out

PFE: target not reached by March 3

Lyra published PFE at $25.72 on December 3, 2025, with an expected gain of 20%. The target was $30.86. The thesis pointed to early recovery in price action, shares that looked cheap versus analyst-estimated fair value, a broad drug pipeline that could replace fading Covid sales over time, and large size plus dividend support.

Inside the window, PFE rose but never reached the target. Its peak was $27.94 on February 11, 2026, a gain of 8.7%. It ended the window at $26.58 on March 3, 2026. The thesis partially played out on direction, but it missed the published target.

What happened during the window

On February 3, 2026, Pfizer reported lower fourth-quarter sales as demand for its Covid-19 products fell. The company also reiterated its 2026 guidance in that report.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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