Track record · closed signal

The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) — closed signal from December 3, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 3, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

PG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$147.09 Published $166.21 Target $159.72 Window close $167.25 Peak
$144.00 – $148.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$147.09Published — price the day we called it
$166.21Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$167.25Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$159.72Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 83 days.

Peak price
$167.25
peak on February 27, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+13.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$159.72
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
83
Window
December 3, 2025 – March 3, 2026

The thesis — published December 3, 2025

Predicted growth
+13%
over the measurement window
Target price
$166.21
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$144.00 – $148.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$147.09
published December 3, 2025
Confidence
75%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

PG looks like a high-quality household company that recently got pushed down more than its earnings justify. Independent valuation estimates say the stock is well below where it should trade, and this mismatch plus steady cash flows makes a short-term rebound trade plausible as investors buy the safety of staples.

Primary drivers

  • Indicators show the stock was pushed down a lot and may rebound.
  • Analysts find the share price is well below fair value estimates.
  • Strong household brands and ability to keep prices help profits.
  • Defensive stocks often get bought when markets get choppy.

How it played out

PG: target reached in 83 days

Lyra published PG at $147.09 on 2025-12-03, with a short-term thesis for 13% expected growth. The thesis pointed to a stock that had been pushed down, valuation estimates above the share price, steady household brands, pricing power, and possible demand for defensive stocks when markets got choppy.

Inside the window, PG reached a peak of $167.25 on 2026-02-27. That was above the $166.21 target, with a peak gain of 13.7%. The target was reached in 83 days. By 2026-03-03, the stock ended at $159.72. The thesis played out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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