UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) — closed signal from December 3, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 3, 2026 — -10.9% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 73% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published December 3, 2025
UnitedHealth looks like a high-quality company trading at a discount after sector pressure. Recent price signals have turned more positive and momentum is recovering, suggesting a possible base. Analysts note the stock trades at a mid-teens earnings multiple and a new WeeklyPay ETF shows ongoing demand, which could support a gradual rebound despite policy risk.
Primary drivers
- Recent positive price signals and a stabilizing recent average price hint at recovery.
- Shares trade at a mid-teens earnings multiple, making valuation less stretched.
- A new WeeklyPay ETF shows continued investor interest in the stock.
- Wide mix of health benefits and services supports steady long-term earnings.
How it played out
UNH: target missed after a partial rebound
Lyra published UNH at 324.75 on 2025-12-03 with expected growth of 14%. The thesis pointed to recent positive price signals, a stabilizing recent average price, a mid-teens earnings multiple, a new WeeklyPay ETF, and a wide mix of health benefits and services. It expected a gradual rebound despite policy risk.
Inside the window, UNH rose to 357.87 on 2026-01-23, a peak gain of 10.2%. That stayed below the 367.74 target, so the target was never reached. By 2026-03-03, the stock ended at 289.21. The thesis partly played out, then failed to hold.
What happened during the window
On Jan. 27, 2026, MarketWatch reported that UnitedHealth issued a 2026 revenue outlook for a decline and reported fourth-quarter results. The same article reported that the stock closed lower that day.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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