Track record · closed signal

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from December 3, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 3, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

UBER price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$88.00 – $92.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$91.23Published — price the day we called it

$113.13Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$92.78Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$76.36Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 7% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$92.78

peak on December 8, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+1.7%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$76.36

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

December 3, 2025 – March 3, 2026

The thesis — published December 3, 2025

Predicted growth

+24%

over the measurement window

Target price

$113.13

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$88.00 – $92.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$91.23

published December 3, 2025

Confidence

82%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Uber is a fast-growing, higher-volatility stock with strong upward momentum and recent price measures supporting the move. There was a short pause in momentum, but the Dallas robotaxi launch and a new analyst upgrade with a higher target add real reasons to expect more growth over the next quarter.

Primary drivers

Strong momentum and recent average price trends point to an ongoing uptrend.
Robotaxi launch in Dallas shows progress toward new revenue sources.
Analyst upgrade and higher target improve market sentiment and visibility.
Better profitability in rides and delivery supports long-term growth.

How it played out

UBER: target was not reached

Lyra published UBER on 2025-12-03 at $91.23, with expected growth of 24% and a target of $113.13. The thesis pointed to strong upward momentum, recent average price trends, the Dallas robotaxi launch, an analyst upgrade with a higher target, and better profitability in rides and delivery.

Inside the window, UBER peaked at $92.78 on 2025-12-08, for a 1.7% gain. That stayed below the target. It never got there. By 2026-03-03, the stock ended at $76.36. The thesis missed on price.

What happened during the window

On 2025-12-03, Uber launched autonomous rides in Dallas with Avride vehicles, according to Axios. On 2026-02-04, MarketWatch reported that Uber's stock fell after fourth-quarter profit missed analyst expectations, even though revenue and gross bookings rose.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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