Track record · closed signal

The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from December 3, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 3, 2026 — +3.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$89.00 – $93.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$91.98Published — price the day we called it

$110.38Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$107.49Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$95.24Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 85% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+3.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+16.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-0.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$95.24

last close inside the window, ended March 3, 2026

Peak price

$107.49

peak on February 10, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published December 3, 2025

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$110.38

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$89.00 – $93.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$91.98

published December 3, 2025

Confidence

83%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Charles Schwab looks like a solid candidate to recover after a period of weakness. Price signals show it coming out of a down phase and recent averages have steadied, while investor sentiment is strong. Sales more than doubled compared to last year is not stated here, but Q3 sales grew more than 26 percent, and favorable valuation grades plus news about crypto trading could boost customer activity and trading volumes.

Primary drivers

Price is rebounding after weakness and is stabilizing.
Q3 sales grew more than 26 percent, showing strong revenue.
Analyst and value grades suggest the stock is reasonably priced.
More crypto trading options could increase overall trading volumes.

How it played out

SCHW: target stayed out of reach

Lyra published SCHW on 2025-12-03 at 91.98 with expected growth of 20 percent. The thesis pointed to a rebound after weakness, steadier recent averages, strong sentiment, Q3 sales growth of more than 26 percent, favorable value grades, and more crypto trading options that could lift customer activity and trading volumes.

Inside the window, the stock rose but did not reach 110.38. It peaked at 107.49 on 2026-02-10, with a peak gain of 16.9 percent. It ended the window at 95.24. The thesis partially played out on direction and momentum, but it missed the target.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-21, Charles Schwab reported fourth-quarter results. The company reported adjusted earnings of 1.39 per share and revenue of 6.336 billion, according to Investor's Business Daily. The Wall Street Journal reported the same day that Schwab's profit rose 34 percent, with trading revenue up 22 percent and net interest revenue up 25 percent.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SCHW signals