The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from December 3, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 3, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.
The thesis — published December 3, 2025
Charles Schwab looks like a solid candidate to recover after a period of weakness. Price signals show it coming out of a down phase and recent averages have steadied, while investor sentiment is strong. Sales more than doubled compared to last year is not stated here, but Q3 sales grew more than 26 percent, and favorable valuation grades plus news about crypto trading could boost customer activity and trading volumes.
Primary drivers
- Price is rebounding after weakness and is stabilizing.
- Q3 sales grew more than 26 percent, showing strong revenue.
- Analyst and value grades suggest the stock is reasonably priced.
- More crypto trading options could increase overall trading volumes.
How it played out
SCHW: target stayed out of reach
Lyra published SCHW on 2025-12-03 at 91.98 with expected growth of 20 percent. The thesis pointed to a rebound after weakness, steadier recent averages, strong sentiment, Q3 sales growth of more than 26 percent, favorable value grades, and more crypto trading options that could lift customer activity and trading volumes.
Inside the window, the stock rose but did not reach 110.38. It peaked at 107.49 on 2026-02-10, with a peak gain of 16.9 percent. It ended the window at 95.24. The thesis partially played out on direction and momentum, but it missed the target.
What happened during the window
On 2026-01-21, Charles Schwab reported fourth-quarter results. The company reported adjusted earnings of 1.39 per share and revenue of 6.336 billion, according to Investor's Business Daily. The Wall Street Journal reported the same day that Schwab's profit rose 34 percent, with trading revenue up 22 percent and net interest revenue up 25 percent.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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