Track record · closed signal

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) — closed signal from December 2, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 2, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

UNH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$322.83 Published $378.39 Target $294.93 Window close $357.87 Peak
$310.81 – $325.61Entry zone — fair-value band
$322.83Published — price the day we called it
$378.39Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$357.87Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$294.93Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 61% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$357.87
peak on January 23, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+10.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$294.93
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
December 2, 2025 – March 2, 2026

The thesis — published December 2, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$378.39
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$310.81 – $325.61
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$322.83
published December 2, 2025
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

UnitedHealth is the biggest U.S. managed-care and health-services company, but the stock is down more than a third this year. Management sold Banmedica for about $1 billion, showing they are simplifying the business while facing cost and policy pressure. End-of-year tax selling could keep the price bouncy. Because the shares look oversold and early signs of stabilization appear, there could be a three-month rebound, yet rules and profit pressures mean it should be watched closely rather than aggressively bought.

Primary drivers

  • Largest U.S. managed-care and health-services company by scale.
  • Selling Banmedica shows active cleanup of noncore assets.
  • Big 2025 price drop makes a rebound more likely short term.
  • Policy and rising costs limit confidence and position sizes.

How it played out

UNH: rebound rose, but the target was not reached

Lyra published UNH on December 2, 2025 at $322.83. The thesis expected 18% growth toward $378.39. It pointed to UnitedHealth's scale, the Banmedica sale as business cleanup, the big 2025 price drop, and a possible short-term rebound. It also noted policy and cost pressure as limits on confidence.

Inside the window, UNH rose to $357.87 on January 23, 2026, with a 10.9% peak gain. It stayed below the target. By March 2, 2026, it ended at $294.93. The rebound partly played out, then failed to hold.

What happened during the window

On January 27, 2026, UnitedHealth reported fourth-quarter results and gave a 2026 revenue outlook. The same day, MarketWatch reported that the stock closed 19.6% lower after the company said it expected 2026 revenue to decline.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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