Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) — closed signal from December 2, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 2, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 36% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published December 2, 2025
Broadcom sells chips and software used by big data centers and networking systems. Recent industry news - like HPE choosing a new rack design and TSMC planning higher chip prices - makes fast, reliable connections more valuable, and Broadcom is a main supplier. Lots more people are buying than usual, so the stock has risen. The price already looks expensive, so we prefer buying small dips for a modest gain over the next three months.
Primary drivers
- AI and custom chips should keep demand rising for data centers.
- Software products give steady, high-margin income over time.
- Industry moves suggest tighter supply and rising chip prices.
- Stock strength is clear but high price means wait for pullbacks.
How it played out
AVGO: target was not reached
Lyra published AVGO at 392.52 on 2025-12-02 with a short-term expectation of 15% growth. The thesis pointed to demand from data centers and custom chips, steady software income, tighter chip supply, rising chip prices, and visible stock strength. It also said the price already looked expensive, so pullbacks mattered.
Inside the window, AVGO peaked at 413.82 on 2025-12-10, a 5.4% gain. It stayed below the 450.53 target and never reached it. By 2026-03-02, it ended at 318.82. The thesis partially played out early, but the full target missed.
What happened during the window
On December 12, 2025, The Wall Street Journal reported that Broadcom posted fiscal fourth-quarter sales of $18.02 billion and annual sales of $63.9 billion. On December 12, 2025, Business Insider reported that the stock fell after earnings as investors reacted to the company's artificial intelligence outlook.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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