Track record · closed signal

Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) — closed signal from December 2, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 2, 2026 — +46.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

LRCX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$157.92 Published $181.30 Target $231.00 Window close $256.68 Peak
$151.50 – $159.47Entry zone — fair-value band
$157.92Published — price the day we called it
$181.30Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$256.68Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$231.00Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 31 days.

At window close
+46.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+62.5%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+1%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$231.00
last close inside the window, ended March 2, 2026
Peak price
$256.68
peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
31

The thesis — published December 2, 2025

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$181.30
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$151.50 – $159.47
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$157.92
published December 2, 2025
Confidence
73%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Lam is a top maker of machines used to build chips. The chip industry is forecast to grow toward $1 trillion by 2026, and investors are focused on AI-related chip names. Shares pulled back and have calmed after a big run, so it's a sensible way to get AI-capex exposure on dips, though it's pricier than some peers like Micron.

Primary drivers

  • Key maker of etch and deposition tools for major chip fabs.
  • Industry forecast points to years of factory spending.
  • Shares settled into a steadier range after a big rise.
  • Tailwinds from AI and memory demand, but valuation is rich.

How it played out

LRCX: target reached in 31 days

Lyra published LRCX at $157.92 on December 2, 2025, with expected growth of 15% and a target of $181.30. The thesis pointed to Lam's role in etch and deposition tools for major chip fabs, years of factory spending, a steadier share range after a big rise, and demand tied to artificial intelligence and memory. It also noted rich valuation.

Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 31 days. It later peaked at $256.68 on February 25, 2026, with a peak gain of 62.5%. It ended the window at $231. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On January 28, 2026, Investor's Business Daily reported that Lam Research beat fiscal second-quarter targets and guided above views for the current period.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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