Track record · closed signal

Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) — closed signal from December 2, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 2, 2026 — -6.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

EFC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$12.76 – $13.44Entry zone — fair-value band

$13.37Published — price the day we called it

$14.57Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$14.12Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$12.46Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 56% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-6.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+5.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$12.46

last close inside the window, ended March 2, 2026

Peak price

$14.12

peak on January 22, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published December 2, 2025

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$14.57

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$12.76 – $13.44

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$13.37

published December 2, 2025

Confidence

74%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Ellington Financial is a mortgage-focused REIT trading near its estimated net asset value of about $13.25. It pays income and could rise a bit if the market narrows the discount. Management confirmed the book estimate, which helps set a price floor. This is a short-term, income-oriented idea best kept small because the business uses leverage and is sensitive to interest rates and liquidity.

Primary drivers

Lends and invests in mortgage and credit assets that pay higher interest.
Shares trade around an estimated $13.25 net asset value.
Very low technical readings hint at a possible short-term rebound.
Performance relies on steady funding costs and calm credit markets.

How it played out

EFC: target missed after a 5.6% peak gain

Lyra published EFC at $13.37 on 2025-12-02 as a short-term, income-oriented idea with 10% expected growth. The thesis pointed to a mortgage-focused REIT trading near an estimated $13.25 net asset value, income from mortgage and credit assets, very low technical readings, and the need for steady funding costs and calm credit markets.

Inside the window, EFC rose to $14.12 on 2026-01-22, a 5.6% peak gain. That stayed below the $14.57 target. It never got there. By 2026-03-02, the stock had ended at $12.46. The thesis partially played out, but the target was missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All EFC signals