Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc. (Class C) (GOOG) — closed signal from December 2, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 2, 2026 — -3.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$304.60 – $319.58Entry zone — fair-value band

$316.99Published — price the day we called it

$354.80Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$350.15Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$306.36Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 88% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

-3.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+10.5%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$306.36

last close inside the window, ended March 2, 2026

Peak price

$350.15

peak on February 3, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published December 2, 2025

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$354.80

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$304.60 – $319.58

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$316.99

published December 2, 2025

Confidence

77%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet is at the center of online search, ads, video and cloud services, which together give it a big edge in AI. Rivals treating Google as a major threat and the company's climate contracts with partners show reach beyond ads. Recent price action looks healthy and lots more people are buying than usual. Buying on small pullbacks can gain AI exposure over three months.

Primary drivers

Search, YouTube and Cloud combine data and AI strength.
Rival reactions show Google is seen as a major competitive threat.
Climate-tech deals expand long-term business beyond ads.
Recent price action and heavy buying support buy-on-dip plans.

How it played out

GOOG: target missed after a 10.5% peak gain

Lyra published GOOG at 316.99 on 2025-12-02 with 12% expected growth over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to Search, YouTube and Cloud, artificial intelligence strength, rival reactions, climate-tech deals, healthy price action, and heavy buying.

Inside the window, GOOG rose to 350.15 on 2026-02-03, a 10.5% peak gain, but stayed below the 354.8 target. It never got there. By 2026-03-02, it ended at 306.36. The thesis partly played out on the move higher, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-12-22, Alphabet agreed to buy Intersect, an energy and data center infrastructure developer. On 2026-02-04, Alphabet reported fourth-quarter revenue of $113.83bn and profit of $34.5bn.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All GOOG signals