Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc. (Class C) (GOOG) — closed signal from December 2, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 2, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$316.99 Published $354.80 Target $306.36 Window close $350.15 Peak
$304.60 – $319.58Entry zone — fair-value band
$316.99Published — price the day we called it
$354.80Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$350.15Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$306.36Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$350.15
peak on February 3, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+10.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$306.36
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
December 2, 2025 – March 2, 2026

The thesis — published December 2, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$354.80
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$304.60 – $319.58
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$316.99
published December 2, 2025
Confidence
77%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet is at the center of online search, ads, video and cloud services, which together give it a big edge in AI. Rivals treating Google as a major threat and the company's climate contracts with partners show reach beyond ads. Recent price action looks healthy and lots more people are buying than usual. Buying on small pullbacks can gain AI exposure over three months.

Primary drivers

  • Search, YouTube and Cloud combine data and AI strength.
  • Rival reactions show Google is seen as a major competitive threat.
  • Climate-tech deals expand long-term business beyond ads.
  • Recent price action and heavy buying support buy-on-dip plans.

How it played out

GOOG: target missed after a 10.5% peak gain

Lyra published GOOG at 316.99 on 2025-12-02 with 12% expected growth over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to Search, YouTube and Cloud, artificial intelligence strength, rival reactions, climate-tech deals, healthy price action, and heavy buying.

Inside the window, GOOG rose to 350.15 on 2026-02-03, a 10.5% peak gain, but stayed below the 354.8 target. It never got there. By 2026-03-02, it ended at 306.36. The thesis partly played out on the move higher, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-12-22, Alphabet agreed to buy Intersect, an energy and data center infrastructure developer. On 2026-02-04, Alphabet reported fourth-quarter revenue of $113.83bn and profit of $34.5bn.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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