Track record · closed signal

Bank of America Corporation (BAC) — closed signal from December 2, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 2, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

BAC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$52.97 Published $59.02 Target $49.81 Window close $57.55 Peak
$50.97 – $53.44Entry zone — fair-value band
$52.97Published — price the day we called it
$59.02Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$57.55Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$49.81Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 72% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$57.55
peak on January 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+8.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$49.81
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
December 2, 2025 – March 2, 2026

The thesis — published December 2, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$59.02
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$50.97 – $53.44
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$52.97
published December 2, 2025
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Bank of America is a very large U.S. bank that serves everyday customers and big companies, and also runs investment and wealth businesses. Its research team now expects stronger overall economic growth and even suggests small crypto exposure for clients, which could boost fee income. Recent price action looks positive, and BAC is a liquid, relatively steady way to benefit if the economy improves.

Primary drivers

  • Big, diverse U.S. consumer and corporate bank with wealth services.
  • Stronger growth forecasts could lift loans and fees.
  • Advising crypto exposure suggests clients may take more investment risk.
  • Recent price action points to the start of an up move, attracting buyers.

How it played out

BAC: the target was not reached

Lyra published BAC at $52.97 on 2025-12-02 with 12% expected growth and a $59.02 target. The thesis pointed to Bank of America's large consumer, corporate, investment, and wealth businesses. It also pointed to stronger growth forecasts, possible fee income from clients taking more investment risk, and recent positive price action.

Inside the window, BAC rose to a $57.55 peak on 2026-01-05, a gain of 8.6%. That was below the $59.02 target. It never got there. By 2026-03-02, the stock ended at $49.81. The thesis partially played out, because the stock rose, but it missed the target and closed below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On Jan. 14, 2026, Bank of America reported fourth-quarter earnings of 98 cents a share on revenue of $28.4 billion. On the same date, Financial News reported fourth-quarter equities trading revenue rose 23%, while dealmaking fees were up 1%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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