The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from December 2, 2025
Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 2, 2026 — +3.1% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Came within reach: 89% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.
The thesis — published December 2, 2025
Schwab is a big player in brokerage, advice and banking, so its profits rise when clients hold cash and trade. The company issued $2 billion in new debt to strengthen its funding, and an analyst firm stayed positive. After recent weakness, the stock looks like it's forming a low-risk area to buy over the next three months.
Primary drivers
- Large brokerage and advisory business with steady client assets.
- $2B in new notes improves funding and gives flexibility.
- Analysts remain positive despite recent volatility.
- Stock is forming a low area that may be a safer entry point.
How it played out
SCHW: thesis rose but target was not reached
Lyra published SCHW at $92.60 on 2025-12-02 with an expected gain of 18% over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to Schwab's large brokerage and advisory base, steady client assets, $2B in new notes, positive analyst views despite volatility, and a low area that looked like a safer entry point.
Inside the window, SCHW rose to a peak of $107.49 on 2026-02-10, a 16.1% gain. That stayed below the $109.27 target, so the target was never reached. The stock ended the window at $95.49 on 2026-03-02. The thesis partially played out, but it missed the target.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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