The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from December 2, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 2, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.
The thesis — published December 2, 2025
Schwab is a big player in brokerage, advice and banking, so its profits rise when clients hold cash and trade. The company issued $2 billion in new debt to strengthen its funding, and an analyst firm stayed positive. After recent weakness, the stock looks like it's forming a low-risk area to buy over the next three months.
Primary drivers
- Large brokerage and advisory business with steady client assets.
- $2B in new notes improves funding and gives flexibility.
- Analysts remain positive despite recent volatility.
- Stock is forming a low area that may be a safer entry point.
How it played out
SCHW: thesis rose but target was not reached
Lyra published SCHW at $92.60 on 2025-12-02 with an expected gain of 18% over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to Schwab's large brokerage and advisory base, steady client assets, $2B in new notes, positive analyst views despite volatility, and a low area that looked like a safer entry point.
Inside the window, SCHW rose to a peak of $107.49 on 2026-02-10, a 16.1% gain. That stayed below the $109.27 target, so the target was never reached. The stock ended the window at $95.49 on 2026-03-02. The thesis partially played out, but it missed the target.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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