Track record · closed signal

Citigroup Inc. (C) — closed signal from December 2, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 2, 2026 — +7.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

C price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$100.00 – $105.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$103.48Published — price the day we called it

$117.97Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$125.16Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$111.45Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 20 days.

At window close

+7.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+21%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$111.45

last close inside the window, ended March 2, 2026

Peak price

$125.16

peak on February 9, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published December 2, 2025

Predicted growth

+14%

over the measurement window

Target price

$117.97

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$100.00 – $105.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$103.48

published December 2, 2025

Confidence

80%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Citigroup is simplifying its business to try to make more profit from its operations. A big bank, Morgan Stanley, reiterated a Buy and set a $134 target, which supports the idea the stock could rise after a strong 12-month run. Shares are near their yearly highs, lots more people are buying than usual, and the recent average price is rising. We like buying small dips near $100 for a short-term move, but there is still execution and regulatory risk.

Primary drivers

Bank is simplifying operations and cutting costs to improve returns.
Morgan Stanley Buy and $134 target support a rerating story.
Shares are near yearly highs and recent buying activity supports momentum.
Exposure to emerging markets and higher rates could boost profits, but risks remain.

How it played out

C: target reached in 20 days

Lyra published C at $103.48 on 2025-12-02 for a short-term window ending 2026-03-02. The thesis expected 14% growth and pointed to business simplification, cost cuts, a Morgan Stanley Buy with a $134 target, buying activity near yearly highs, and possible support from emerging markets and higher rates. It also noted execution and regulatory risk.

Inside the window, C rose to a $125.16 peak on 2026-02-09. The $117.97 target was reached in 20 days. The peak gain was 21%. The stock later ended at $111.45, still above the publication price but below the peak. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-14, Citigroup reported fourth-quarter 2025 net income of $2.5 billion and revenue of $19.9 billion. The same day, reports said investment banking fees rose 35% to $1.29 billion, while the quarter included a $1.2 billion Russia-related charge.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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