Track record · closed signal

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) — closed signal from December 2, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 2, 2026 — +71% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MU price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$229.81 – $244.80Entry zone — fair-value band

$241.26Published — price the day we called it

$284.57Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$455.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$412.67Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 22 days.

At window close

+71%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+88.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$412.67

last close inside the window, ended March 2, 2026

Peak price

$455.50

peak on January 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published December 2, 2025

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$284.57

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$229.81 – $244.80

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$241.26

published December 2, 2025

Confidence

86%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Micron makes fast memory chips that AI servers need. The company raised its sales forecast to about $12.5 billion because customers are buying more HBM and other memory. Industry groups now expect the chip market to grow a lot by 2026, and analysts raised their fair-value views. Together these signs suggest buying on dips could capture further gains over the next few months.

Primary drivers

Stronger HBM and DRAM orders from AI server customers boosting sales.
Company upped sales forecast to about $12.5 billion, showing strength.
Industry forecast for a much larger chip market supports demand.
Analyst fair-value upgrades and positive trend encourage buying dips.

How it played out

MU: target reached in 22 days

Lyra published MU on 2025-12-02 at $241.26 for a short-term window through 2026-03-02. The thesis expected 18% growth and a target of $284.57. It pointed to stronger HBM and DRAM orders from artificial intelligence server customers, a sales forecast of about $12.5 billion, a larger chip-market forecast, and analyst fair-value upgrades.

The stock reached the target in 22 days. It later peaked at $455.50 on 2026-01-30, with a peak gain of 88.8%. By the end of the window, MU closed at $412.67. The thesis played out clearly.

What happened during the window

On 2025-12-03, Micron announced plans to wind down the Crucial consumer business by the end of February 2026. On 2026-01-28, Tom's Hardware reported that Micron had begun construction of a Singapore Fab 10B project with a projected investment of $24 billion over more than a decade.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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