NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from December 2, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 2, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 27% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published December 2, 2025
Nvidia makes the chips that most companies use to run big AI tasks. Data-center sales now make up most of its revenue and partners adopting its platform show the ecosystem is growing. Demand for AI hardware and robotics looks very strong, so GPUs may be scarce through 2026. Because the stock has pulled back but the trend and trading volume are solid, we like buying drops toward support for a potential move up over a few months.
Primary drivers
- Leader in GPUs and accelerators for AI data centers.
- Partner deals show others are building on Nvidia's platform.
- Strong forecasts for AI hardware and robots mean tight GPU supply.
- Recent pullback inside a bigger uptrend gives a buying window.
How it played out
NVDA: thesis rose but missed the target
Lyra published NVDA at $185.05 on 2025-12-02 with an expected 25% move over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to leadership in GPUs and accelerators for artificial intelligence data centers, partner deals around Nvidia's platform, strong forecasts for artificial intelligence hardware and robots, tight GPU supply, and a pullback inside a bigger uptrend.
Inside the window, NVDA peaked at $197.63 on 2026-02-25, a 6.8% gain. It stayed below the $231.30 target. It ended at $182.48 on 2026-03-02. The thesis partly played out on direction at the peak, but it missed the target and finished below the published price.
What happened during the window
On 2026-02-26, Tom's Hardware reported Nvidia's fiscal fourth-quarter results, including $68.127 billion in quarterly revenue and $215.938 billion for the full year. The report said data center revenue was $62.314 billion for the quarter.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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