Banco Santander, S.A. (SAN) — closed signal from December 1, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 1, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 52 days.
The thesis — published December 1, 2025
Analysts see strong price momentum and lots more people are buying than usual, which supports buying small drops. The bank's fundamentals lag this optimism because of credit and country risks. Openbank's retail crypto trading could raise fee income but also brings extra regulatory attention. We expect modest upside over three months with notable risk.
Primary drivers
- Exposed to banking improvement in Europe and Latin America via a large branch network.
- Price action shows stronger buying and recent average price is higher, supporting pullbacks.
- Openbank's crypto trading could add new fee revenue and attract customers.
- Underlying business metrics are behind market optimism because of credit and country risks.
How it played out
SAN: target reached in 52 days
Lyra published SAN at 10.75 on 2025-12-01. The thesis expected 15% growth over a short-term window, with modest upside and notable risk. It pointed to stronger buying, support on pullbacks, exposure to banking improvement in Europe and Latin America, possible Openbank fee revenue from retail crypto trading, and credit and country risks that could hold the business back.
Inside the window, SAN reached a peak of 13.24 on 2026-02-25, above the 12.36 target. The peak gain was 23.2%. The target was reached in 52 days, and the stock ended at 12.36 on 2026-03-01. The thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On 2026-02-03, Banco Santander reported 2025 attributable profit of 14.101 billion euros, up 12%, and said it reached 180 million customers. On 2026-02-24, El Pais reported Santander's U.S. expansion through Webster Financial and described its 2025 profit and capital position.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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