Track record · closed signal

The Walt Disney Company (DIS) — closed signal from December 1, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 1, 2026 — +0.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

DIS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$105.84 Published $128.26 Target $106.04 Window close $116.03 Peak
$101.62 – $106.55Entry zone — fair-value band
$105.84Published — price the day we called it
$128.26Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$116.03Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$106.04Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 44% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
+0.2%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+9.6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+1.1%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$106.04
last close inside the window, ended March 1, 2026
Peak price
$116.03
peak on January 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published December 1, 2025

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$128.26
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$101.62 – $106.55
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$105.84
published December 1, 2025
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Disney looks like it's bouncing after a pullback. Analysts see buying interest around $103-$108 rather than chasing strength. A very strong opening for Zootopia 2 ($156M domestic, $556M global) should help studio and streaming sentiment. We expect box office and streaming stories to improve over three months, but the business results still lag the excitement.

Primary drivers

  • Zootopia 2's big opening should lift studios and streaming sentiment soon.
  • Analysts see buying interest in the low $100s after the recent pullback.
  • Investor sentiment is improving faster than the company's reported results.
  • Parks, studios and direct-to-consumer give multiple paths for recovery.

How it played out

DIS: thesis rose, but the target was not reached

Lyra published DIS at $105.84 on 2025-12-01, with expected growth of 22% to $128.26. The thesis pointed to a bounce after a pullback, buying interest around $103-$108, Zootopia 2's $156M domestic and $556M global opening, and better box office and streaming stories over three months. It also said reported business results still lagged the excitement.

Inside the 2025-12-01 to 2026-03-01 window, DIS peaked at $116.03 on 2026-01-05, a 9.6% gain. It stayed below $128.26, so the target was never reached. It ended at $106.04. The verdict was partial. The stock rose, but the published thesis did not fully play out.

What happened during the window

On January 18, 2026, Disney said Zootopia 2 had become the highest-grossing animated MPA film globally and reported a $1.703 billion global gross to date. Disney also said the film opened on November 26, 2025 with $559.5 million over five days.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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