Track record · closed signal

New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (EDU) — closed signal from December 1, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 1, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

EDU price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$53.93 Published $66.87 Target $54.65 Window close $64.95 Peak
$52.00 – $55.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$53.93Published — price the day we called it
$66.87Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$64.95Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$54.65Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$64.95
peak on February 4, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+20.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$54.65
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
December 1, 2025 – March 1, 2026

The thesis — published December 1, 2025

Predicted growth
+24%
over the measurement window
Target price
$66.87
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$52.00 – $55.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$53.93
published December 1, 2025
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

EDU looks like a short-term rebound: people are more positive now than the company's results justify after earlier regulatory shocks. A recent board re-election gives some stability but does not remove policy risk. If China-related headlines stay calm, the stock could move up in the next three months, but the business still faces big structural uncertainty, so treat this as a cautious watch idea.

Primary drivers

  • Price has been pushed down a lot and now shows signs of turning higher.
  • Investor mood is much better than the company's current fundamentals.
  • Annual meeting re-election adds some stability but not a policy change.
  • A short-term rebound is possible if China-related news remains calm.

How it played out

EDU: rebound came close but never reached the target

Lyra published EDU at 53.93 on 2025-12-01 as a short-term rebound idea with 24% expected growth. The thesis pointed to a stock that had been pushed down and was starting to turn higher. It also pointed to better investor mood than the company's fundamentals justified, board re-election stability, and a possible rebound if China-related headlines stayed calm.

Inside the window, EDU rose to 64.95 on 2026-02-04, a 20.4% peak gain. The target was 66.87. It never got there. By 2026-03-01, the stock ended at 54.65. The thesis partly played out, but it missed the published target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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