Track record · closed signal

New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (EDU) — closed signal from December 1, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 1, 2026 — +1.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

EDU price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$52.00 – $55.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$53.93Published — price the day we called it

$66.87Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$64.95Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$54.65Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 85% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+1.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+20.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$54.65

last close inside the window, ended March 1, 2026

Peak price

$64.95

peak on February 4, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published December 1, 2025

Predicted growth

+24%

over the measurement window

Target price

$66.87

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$52.00 – $55.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$53.93

published December 1, 2025

Confidence

70%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

EDU looks like a short-term rebound: people are more positive now than the company's results justify after earlier regulatory shocks. A recent board re-election gives some stability but does not remove policy risk. If China-related headlines stay calm, the stock could move up in the next three months, but the business still faces big structural uncertainty, so treat this as a cautious watch idea.

Primary drivers

Price has been pushed down a lot and now shows signs of turning higher.
Investor mood is much better than the company's current fundamentals.
Annual meeting re-election adds some stability but not a policy change.
A short-term rebound is possible if China-related news remains calm.

How it played out

EDU: rebound came close but never reached the target

Lyra published EDU at 53.93 on 2025-12-01 as a short-term rebound idea with 24% expected growth. The thesis pointed to a stock that had been pushed down and was starting to turn higher. It also pointed to better investor mood than the company's fundamentals justified, board re-election stability, and a possible rebound if China-related headlines stayed calm.

Inside the window, EDU rose to 64.95 on 2026-02-04, a 20.4% peak gain. The target was 66.87. It never got there. By 2026-03-01, the stock ended at 54.65. The thesis partly played out, but it missed the published target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All EDU signals