Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) — closed signal from December 1, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 1, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 35 days.
The thesis — published December 1, 2025
Lam is benefiting from rising spending on AI and memory chip equipment, but its stock has already more than doubled this year. Analysts expect the price action to pause and consolidate rather than reverse, and recent reports show very strong one year gains and high momentum, meaning many investors already own it. We still see more upside over the next three months if the stock pulls back, but future gains may come slower than the last big run.
Primary drivers
- Makes advanced tools used by AI and memory chip makers
- Short-term weakness likely reflects a pause, not a trend change
- Very strong one year gains show the stock is widely owned now
- Valuation and crowded buying limit how fast it can rise
How it played out
LRCX: target reached in 35 days
Lyra published LRCX at $154.84 on Dec. 1, 2025, with expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to Lam's role in advanced tools for artificial intelligence and memory chip makers. It also said the stock had already more than doubled this year, so gains could slow as valuation and crowded buying limited the pace.
The market moved well past the target inside the window. LRCX reached the target in 35 days and later peaked at $256.68 on Feb. 25, 2026, a 65.8% gain. It ended the window at $233.89. The thesis played out, and the move was stronger than expected.
What happened during the window
On Dec. 19, 2025, IBD reported that LRCX hit an all-time high and closed at $172.27. On Jan. 28, 2026, IBD reported Lam's fiscal second-quarter results, with adjusted earnings of $1.27 per share on revenue of $5.34 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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