Track record · closed signal

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from December 1, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 1, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

UBER price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$82.00 – $88.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$87.45Published — price the day we called it

$108.43Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$92.78Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$75.42Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 25% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$92.78

peak on December 8, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+6.1%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$75.42

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

December 1, 2025 – March 1, 2026

The thesis — published December 1, 2025

Predicted growth

+24%

over the measurement window

Target price

$108.43

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$82.00 – $88.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$87.45

published December 1, 2025

Confidence

76%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Uber moved from losing money to a profitable business that runs ride sharing, food delivery and freight. The stock is taking a short pause inside a longer uptrend. Big investors owning large stakes adds confidence. We expect margins and steady customer demand to improve over the next few months and push the stock higher after this digestion period.

Primary drivers

Scale across rides, delivery and freight improving profits.
Current price pause gives a better place to buy for the trend.
Large, well-known investors own big stakes, which signals confidence.
Better routing and pricing from AI and data work to lift margins.

How it played out

UBER: the target was not reached

Lyra published UBER at 87.45 on 2025-12-01 with a short-term thesis for 24% growth toward 108.43. The thesis pointed to scale across rides, delivery and freight, a pause inside a longer uptrend, large investors owning stakes, and better routing and pricing from artificial intelligence and data work.

Inside the window, UBER rose to 92.78 on 2025-12-08, a 6.1% peak gain. It stayed below the target. By 2026-03-01, it ended at 75.42. The thesis partially played out early, but the published target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-04, Uber reported fourth-quarter results and gave a first-quarter profit outlook that MarketWatch said was below expectations. On 2026-02-23, Uber said it planned to acquire SpotHero, with terms not disclosed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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