The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from December 1, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 1, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.
The thesis — published December 1, 2025
Charles Schwab is positioned to benefit as interest rates and cash flows in brokerage and wealth management settle down. The stock has been forming a bottoming pattern, so buying nearer the current range looks less risky than chasing higher prices. Analysts target about $111.61, suggesting notable upside if earnings and client assets steady over three months.
Primary drivers
- Better profits as interest margins and cash flow pressures ease.
- Stock forming a base so buying near current range feels lower risk.
- Analysts estimate a price near $112, signaling upside from here.
- Stronger stock markets help trading and asset management revenue grow.
How it played out
SCHW: the thesis rose close to target, then faded
Lyra published SCHW at 92.32 on 2025-12-01, with an expected 18% gain and a 108.94 target. The thesis pointed to easing pressure on interest margins and cash flows, a stock base near the current range, analyst targets near 112, and stronger markets helping trading and asset management revenue.
Inside the window, SCHW peaked at 107.49 on 2026-02-10, up 16.4%. It stayed below the 108.94 target and never reached it. By 2026-03-01, it ended at 95.20. The thesis mostly played out on direction and magnitude, but it missed the stated target.
What happened during the window
On 2026-01-21, Charles Schwab reported fourth-quarter results. The report said profit rose, while adjusted earnings per share missed analyst estimates by a small amount. On the same date, Investors.com reported that trading revenue, daily average trading volume, client accounts, asset management fees, and total client assets all rose.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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