Track record · closed signal

The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from December 1, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 1, 2026 — +3.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$88.00 – $93.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$92.32Published — price the day we called it

$108.94Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$107.49Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$95.20Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 91% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+3.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+16.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$95.20

last close inside the window, ended March 1, 2026

Peak price

$107.49

peak on February 10, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published December 1, 2025

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$108.94

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$88.00 – $93.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$92.32

published December 1, 2025

Confidence

75%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Charles Schwab is positioned to benefit as interest rates and cash flows in brokerage and wealth management settle down. The stock has been forming a bottoming pattern, so buying nearer the current range looks less risky than chasing higher prices. Analysts target about $111.61, suggesting notable upside if earnings and client assets steady over three months.

Primary drivers

Better profits as interest margins and cash flow pressures ease.
Stock forming a base so buying near current range feels lower risk.
Analysts estimate a price near $112, signaling upside from here.
Stronger stock markets help trading and asset management revenue grow.

How it played out

SCHW: the thesis rose close to target, then faded

Lyra published SCHW at 92.32 on 2025-12-01, with an expected 18% gain and a 108.94 target. The thesis pointed to easing pressure on interest margins and cash flows, a stock base near the current range, analyst targets near 112, and stronger markets helping trading and asset management revenue.

Inside the window, SCHW peaked at 107.49 on 2026-02-10, up 16.4%. It stayed below the 108.94 target and never reached it. By 2026-03-01, it ended at 95.20. The thesis mostly played out on direction and magnitude, but it missed the stated target.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-21, Charles Schwab reported fourth-quarter results. The report said profit rose, while adjusted earnings per share missed analyst estimates by a small amount. On the same date, Investors.com reported that trading revenue, daily average trading volume, client accounts, asset management fees, and total client assets all rose.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SCHW signals