Track record · closed signal

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) — closed signal from December 1, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 1, 2026 — +5.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$782.23 – $811.93Entry zone — fair-value band

$815.76Published — price the day we called it

$917.26Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$984.70Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$859.57Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 35 days.

At window close

+5.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+20.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$859.57

last close inside the window, ended March 1, 2026

Peak price

$984.70

peak on January 16, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published December 1, 2025

Predicted growth

+13%

over the measurement window

Target price

$917.26

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$782.23 – $811.93

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$815.76

published December 1, 2025

Confidence

88%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Goldman is shifting toward fee-based asset and wealth management, which makes earnings steadier while trading stays solid. Investor sentiment is very positive and the recent deal to buy Innovator Capital for $2 billion should add recurring revenue. As integration proceeds, we expect modest upward price movement over the next three months.

Primary drivers

Focusing on fees from asset and wealth management makes revenue more predictable.
Investor enthusiasm and positive price action support continued confidence in the stock.
The $2B ETF deal grows their ETF business and increases assets they manage.
Current valuation seems to allow mid teens upside as recurring fees are valued higher.

How it played out

GS: target reached in 35 days

Lyra published GS at $815.76 on 2025-12-01 with 13% expected growth and a $917.26 target. The thesis pointed to steadier fee-based asset and wealth management, solid trading, positive investor sentiment, and the $2 billion Innovator Capital deal as support for recurring revenue.

The stock reached the target in 35 days. It peaked at $984.70 on 2026-01-16, a 20.7% gain inside the window. By 2026-03-01 it ended at $859.57, still above the publication price but below the peak. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-15, Goldman Sachs reported fourth-quarter profit of $4.62 billion, or $14.01 per share, while revenue was $13.45 billion. On the same date, MarketWatch reported that investment-banking fees rose 25% to $2.58 billion and that the shares rose 4% after the report.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All GS signals