NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from December 1, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 1, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 28% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published December 1, 2025
Nvidia is a leader in chips for AI and data centers. The stock recently fell a lot but buyers are stepping in, so this drop looks like a temporary pullback, not a permanent problem. New AI funding, like a $300M raise, shows demand remains strong and increases the chance the stock rebounds over the next few months.
Primary drivers
- Market leader in AI chips with steady data center demand
- Analysts see a deep but likely temporary oversold condition
- High investor interest and top performer status show big players are involved
- Large AI funding rounds, like $300M, support long term chip demand
How it played out
NVDA: target was not reached by the window close
Lyra published NVDA at 178.39 on 2025-12-01 with a short-term thesis for 38% expected growth. The thesis pointed to leadership in chips for artificial intelligence and data centers, a recent pullback that looked temporary, buyer interest, and large funding rounds such as $300M as support for demand.
Inside the window, NVDA peaked at 197.63 on 2026-02-25, a 10.8% gain. That was below the 246.16 target. The target was never reached. By 2026-03-01, the stock ended at 177.19. The thesis partly played out because the stock rose, but it missed the published target.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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