Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from November 30, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 28, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$176.99 Published $240.69 Target $177.19 Window close $197.63 Peak
$169.98 – $179.98Entry zone — fair-value band
$176.99Published — price the day we called it
$240.69Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$197.63Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$177.19Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 32% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$197.63
peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+11.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$177.19
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
November 30, 2025 – February 28, 2026

The thesis — published November 30, 2025

Predicted growth
+36%
over the measurement window
Target price
$240.69
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$169.98 – $179.98
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$176.99
published November 30, 2025
Confidence
80%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Nvidia is a central player in AI and recently fell hard after a big run, so its price shows signs of heavy selling. Headlines about a possible $5 trillion valuation and strong business trends mean demand remains strong. With markets expecting interest rate relief, the stock could bounce back over the next few months if you size risk carefully.

Primary drivers

  • Main maker of GPUs and systems for AI and data centers
  • Price dropped sharply and looks heavily sold after the recent run
  • High-profile talk of a $5 trillion valuation underscores demand outlook
  • Expected rate cuts could revive investor interest in growth names

How it played out

NVDA: target was not reached

Lyra published NVDA at $176.99 on 2025-11-30 with expected growth of 36% and a target of $240.69. The thesis pointed to NVIDIA's role in chips and systems for artificial intelligence and data centers, a sharp price drop after a run, talk of a $5 trillion valuation, and expected rate cuts that could revive interest in growth stocks.

Inside the window, NVDA rose but stayed below the target. Its peak was $197.63 on 2026-02-25, a gain of 11.7%. It ended at $177.19 on 2026-02-28. The thesis partially played out, but the target was never reached.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-25, NVIDIA reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $68.1 billion, up 73%. The report came before the 2026-02-28 window end.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals