Track record · closed signal

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B (BRK-B) — closed signal from July 15, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 13, 2025 — +3.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

BRK-B price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$468.00 – $482.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$476.31Published — price the day we called it

$523.94Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$507.66Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$491.93Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 66% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+3.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+6.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+6.9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$491.93

last close inside the window, ended October 13, 2025

Peak price

$507.66

peak on September 5, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 15, 2025

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$523.94

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$468.00 – $482.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$476.31

published July 15, 2025

Confidence

90%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

After a recent 10 % drop, the stock is now near its long-term trend line, a spot that sparked strong rebounds in 2020 and 2024. The company is sitting on $188 billion in cash that earns over 5 % interest, and it will start buying back shares if the price falls much more, which helps set a solid floor. Train and insurance profits are improving, news of a 149 % five-year gain keeps excitement high, and August results should show more income from its insurance float, so a move back toward $521 in the next three months looks reasonable.

Primary drivers

Stock is the most oversold since Oct 2024 while resting on its long trend line.
$188 billion cash earning 5 %+ gives firepower for buybacks and deals.
Insurance arm expected to show better profit margins in early-August report.
Five-year gain of 149 % keeps investors enthusiastic and buying interest strong.

How it played out

BRK-B: target was not reached

Lyra published BRK-B at $476.31 on 2025-07-15 with expected growth of 10 %. The thesis pointed to a recent 10 % drop, support near a long-term trend line, $188 billion in cash earning over 5 %, possible buybacks, improving train and insurance profits, a 149 % five-year gain, and August results.

Inside the window, the stock rose, but it never reached $523.94. Its peak was $507.66 on 2025-09-05, a 6.6 % gain. It ended at $491.93 on 2025-10-13. The thesis partly played out because the price rose, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On August 2, 2025, Berkshire Hathaway reported second-quarter results. AP reported that profit fell to $12.37 billion and that Berkshire recorded a $3.76 billion writedown on its Kraft Heinz stake. Barron's reported the same day that operating profit fell 4 % to $11.2 billion, cash was $344 billion, and Berkshire did not buy back shares in the quarter.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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