Track record · closed signal

IMAX Corporation (IMAX) — closed signal from November 30, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 28, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

IMAX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$35.50 – $37.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$37.10Published — price the day we called it

$43.78Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$43.16Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$42.83Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price

$43.16

peak on February 27, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+16.3%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$42.83

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

November 30, 2025 – February 28, 2026

The thesis — published November 30, 2025

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$43.78

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$35.50 – $37.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$37.10

published November 30, 2025

Confidence

65%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

IMAX could rise in the short term because big holiday movies like Zootopia 2 and Wicked may bring more people to premium IMAX screens. Industry sentiment is very positive right now, so more buyers are active. But IMAX's business fundamentals are weak, so size positions conservatively and keep tight limits on potential losses over a three-month trade.

Primary drivers

Holiday blockbusters should increase premium IMAX attendance.
Market momentum currently favors short-term buying interest.
High sentiment shows active demand from many investors.
Light asset model earns fees from studios when films succeed.

How it played out

IMAX: thesis rose, but the target was not reached

Lyra published IMAX at $37.10 on 2025-11-30 with expected growth of 18%. The thesis pointed to holiday blockbusters, premium IMAX attendance, short-term buying interest, high sentiment, and a light asset model tied to studio fees when films succeeded. It also noted weak business fundamentals and called for conservative sizing over the trade window.

Inside the 2025-11-30 to 2026-02-28 window, IMAX rose to a $43.16 peak on 2026-02-27, a 16.3% gain. The $43.78 target was never reached. The stock ended at $42.83. The thesis mostly played out on direction, but it missed the published target.

What happened during the window

On December 1, 2025, MarketWatch reported that "Zootopia 2" opened with $556 million worldwide over the holiday weekend. On December 21, 2025, AP reported that "Avatar: Fire and Ash" launched with $345 million worldwide and that roughly 66% of ticket sales came from premium formats. These were window facts, not stated causes of IMAX's price move.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All IMAX signals